Illinois’ Christmas Weather: What The Almanacs Are Saying

As I write this, we're just over two weeks away from Thanksgiving. As of right now, we're also only a little over a month and two weeks away from Christmas. We're looking at mild and dry conditions with very little chance of snow being predicted for Thanksgiving, but what can we expect for Christmastime?

Most of us here in the Midwest want to see a white Christmas, at least according to anecdotal evidence (also known as "hearing people say they want a white Christmas") and a 2017 Harris Poll in which 78 percent of those asked said they want one.

I'm on board with Team White Christmas, so let's take a look at what some long-time weather prognosticating organizations are predicting.

What The Almanacs Are Saying Versus What The Pro Weather Forecasters Say

The two major players in long-range weather forecasts are the The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the The Farmers’ Almanac. Here’s what they’re predicting for Illinois during the Christmas holiday period:

The Old Farmer’s Almanac places much of Northern and Central Illinois (their “Lower Lakes” region) in a milder-than-normal winter outlook with “milder temperatures and below-average precipitation” along with patchy snow and possibly lake-effect snow in December.

Specifically for the Christmas holiday, they say that Northern Illinois and the Chicago area could expect “cold to very cold” conditions and “snowy periods” around the holiday.

The Farmers’ Almanac, on the other hand, in their 2025–26 outlook for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Midwest region (which includes Illinois) is predicting a “classic winter wonderland” scenario with very cold, snowy conditions, dramatic temperature swings, and repeated snow episodes.

Here's What Some Mainstream Professional Meteorologists Think About It

According to AccuWeather, metro areas like Chicago and Rockford have only about a 33.5% historical chance of waking up to a white Christmas (defined as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground). AccuWeather’s long-range winter outlook for 2025-26 indicates that the Midwest and Great Lakes could see a snowy winter with cold from early December into January and heavy storms possible.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (through its December/February winter outlook) notes that the current (late 2025) conditions suggest a weak La Niña pattern, which historically brings greater variability (cold and snow) to parts of the Upper Midwest, but with a lot of uncertainty.

It looks like the bottom line is if you’re hoping for a picture-perfect snow-covered Christmas morning, you have some grounds for hope, but it might turn out to be a green Christmas, or a very light-white Christmas.