We've discussed the fact that Illinois is leading the Midwest in outbound migration before in this space (Here, here, and here), and we've covered the reasons, starting with high property taxes, that people are looking to get out. Now, taking a look at what a moving truck rental costs people who are leaving Illinois really drives the point home.

A frequent guest on the WROK Morning Show, Illinois Policy's VP of Policy, Michael Lucci, says:

Illinois politicians should remember that we are all volunteers living here, and many Illinoisans have options to live in other cities and states. As the summer weather ushers in moving season, more and more Illinoisans will opt out of living in the Land of Lincoln. The exodus will not end until Illinois pols finally get the state’s fiscal house in order and allow for more economic growth. Repeated tax hikes and job-crushing regulations have turned Illinois into a raw deal for the hundreds of thousands of residents who continue to pour out of the state each year. This summer promises to be another booming season for companies like U-Haul that are moving people out of Illinois.

To back up his theory that this summer will be a big one for moving companies, Michael tried a little experiment. He checked the pricing on a one-way truck from UHaul.com, going from Chicago to Dallas on July 1st, 2017. He found that the current price for a one-way move is $1,650 for a 20 foot truck.

Then, Michael reversed the route. Everything the same, except the move was from Dallas to Chicago. The price for the reverse move with the same truck, the same mileage and the same date is $460.

Michael points out, rightly so, how supply and demand effect prices, and he comes to this conclusion:

It reveals a troubling reality for Illinois. After years of crippling outmigration, still more Illinoisans are planning to bolt this summer. The price for a truck to leave Chicago is high because so many families are planning to get out. The price for a truck to move into Chicago is low because relatively few families are moving in to replace those who leave. Moving companies like U-Haul need to factor these differences into their pricing model to protect their profitability, and to ensure that they don’t end up with an oversupply of Chicago-based trucks sitting in a Dallas parking lot.

Michael ran the numbers for similar moves from Chicago to cities like Denver, Nashville, Charlotte, Orlando and Indianapolis--all with similar results.

Illinois is even losing ground to Detroit. The Chicago to Detroit one-way move is $610. The reverse move, Detroit to Chicago is...$185.

For those who think that this is something that's happening all over the Midwest, don't be so sure. Michael ran the numbers for a one-way move from Indianapolis to Dallas. The price-point there was almost $1000, but when he reversed it--a move from Dallas to Indianapolis--the price was $900. Indy to Dallas still winds up winning the competition, but only by around a hundred bucks.

Check out Illinois Policy's Michael Lucci's piece on outbound migration by clicking here.