New Poll Shows Rauner Up 2 On Quinn In Gov Race

Following a relative lull in polling on the Illinois gubernatorial race, the Chicago Tribune is out this morning with a new look at the race.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, the Tribune/APCResearch survey shows Bruce Rauner leading the incumbent, Pat Quinn, by a 45-43 margin. Last month the same polling firm had Quinn out to an 11-point lead, so the momentum could be swinging back to the Republican.

What accounts for the turnaround? The Tribune reports:

During the past six weeks, the most significant change came from voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties that surround Cook County. Last month, Rauner held a narrow collar-county advantage over Quinn — 44 percent to 39 percent. But the latest survey showed Rauner now capturing two-thirds of collar-county voters.

The Rauner surge has been driven primarily by white suburban women, a voting bloc considered socially moderate but fiscally conservative. Rauner has the backing of 57 percent of that group, while Quinn has the support of 35 percent. A month ago, the candidates split that demographic at 41 percent apiece.

I said at the time that Rauner's slim collar county lead in the previous poll didn't make a lot of sense based on other data on the race. It looks like that particular poll was an absolute outlier, something we also discussed when it was released.

All indications are this is still a tight race meaning (say it with me) it all comes down to turnout.

Meanwhile, the poll also finds President Obama's job approval numbers at an all-time low in Illinois. Only 46 percent approve while 47 percent disapprove of the job he's doing. Certainly these are not great numbers from his home state.